Tuesday, July 1, 2014

The Middle Class Struggle to Obtain Property in San Francisco

It is worth being derivative sometimes; following suit in content, if that means we can better appreciate an important point.  The Wall Street Journal did a good job a few months ago highlighting the undeniable, fundamental challenge of the San Francisco housing landscape.  One quote read:

Workers are finding jobs by the bucketful in San Francisco, but housing supply hasn’t kept pace. About 4,000 housing units have been added in the past three years, for roughly 10,000 new households, according to the city planning department.

            rents are up 17% over the past three years.

            the housing shortage is “a crisis of our own making.”

The messy reality is that…any sustained boost in construction would require the city to overcome a slew of neighborhood and political forces that are aligned against building anything in a hurry, or in certain areas.

And so the paradox at hand is balancing the desire for affordable housing for all while maintaining best interests for existing homeowners.  The estimate within the piece is that it costs $650,000 to build an 800 square foot unit in a midrise building.  Further, it was reminded that building permits themselves must undergo discretionary review (in some cases).  

So in a nutshell, what we are dealing with here is a social problem very much opposite of what is happening across the nation: political activism seeks to push prices down, versus propping them up, in SF.  This is the challenge as to why areas like SF really cannot be compared to national averages.  It is also worth expressing how it can be relevant to pay attention to the local political agenda.

As for the “middle class”—a concept that needs its own elaboration—what is supposed to happen within the marketplace is supposed to play out as the graph below illustrates: 

 


And thus what agents, like myself of course, pay attention to are the how and when homes are sold for gains (unique and specific to individual seller preferences) and inventory returns to the marketplace at large.  That’s something to appreciate.